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Global Oil Demand Growth to fall below 1 Million Barrel per Day in 2019 - EIA

Sep 14,2019

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its outlook for 2019 global oil demand growth 100,000 barrel per day to 890,000 barrel per day, which would put it below 1 million barrel per day for the first time since 2011. EIA has cut its 2019 global oil demand growth outlook for seven months in a row, after starting the year at 1.5 million barrel per day. Weaker demand and recent market movements pushed EIA to lower its oil price forecast in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

 

EIA now sees Brent crude averaging USD 63.39 per barrel in 2019 and USD 62 per barrel in 2020, down USD 1.76 and USD 3, respectively, from last month's outlook. The EIA's August reported WTI crude is expected to average USD 56.31 per barrel in 2019 and USD 56.50 per barrel in 2020, down USD 1.56 and USD 3, respectively.

 

US OIL OUTPUT - EIA trimmed its outlook for US oil production 30,000 barrel per day to 12.24 million barrel per day for 2019 and 13.23 million barrel per day for 2020. US output averaged 10.99 million barrel per day in 2018. US oil production is on track to hit 13 million barrel per day by February. The US will become a net oil exporter for the first time on a monthly basis in October, a month earlier than EIA previously forecast.

 

Crude and refined product exports will exceed imports by 20,000 barrel per day in October, with net exports expanding to 250,000 barrel per day in November. EIA sees the US continuing to be a net oil importer on an annual basis in 2019, with imports exceeding exports by an average of 57,000 barrel per day. Then the US will flip to an annual net exporter in 2020, with exports exceeding imports by 58,000 barrel per day.

 

OPEC PRODUCTION - OPEC oil output averaged 29.7 million barrel per day in August, up 220,000 barrel per day from July as production increases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Nigeria, and Iraq offset declines in Venezuela and Libya. EIA expects OPEC oil output to average 30.03 million barrel per day in 2019 and 29.6 million barrel per day in 2020, down 100,000 barrel per day and 190,000 barrel per day, respectively, from last month's forecast.